Революция разума: на подступах к Сингулярности. Как технологии изменят общество и сознание - Рэймонд Курцвейл

Clock”, US Census Bureau; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Population, Total for United States (POPTOTUSA647NWDB)”; US Census Bureau, “Resident Population of the United States”, US Census Bureau, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www2.census.gov/library/visualizations/2000/dec/2000-resident-population/unitedstates.pdf.

74. National Center for Education Statistics, “Enrollment in Elementary, Secondary, and Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions, by Level and Control of Institution: Selected Years, 1869–70 Through Fall 2030”, US Department of Education, 2021, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d21/tables/dt21_105.30.asp; Tom Snyder, ed., 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 1993), 64, http://web20kmg.pbworks.com/w/file/fetch/66806781/120%20Years%20of%20American%20Education%20A%20Statistical%20Portrait.pdf.

75. National Center for Education Statistics, “Enrollment in Elementary, Secondary, and Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions”.

76. National Center for Education Statistics, “Total and Current Expenditures per Pupil in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools: Selected Years, 1919–20 Through 2018–19”, US Department of Education, September 2021, https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d21/tables/dt21_236.55.asp; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1913-; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated April 12, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL.

77. National Center for Education Statistics, “Total and Current Expenditures per Pupil in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools”; “Consumer Price Index, 1913–”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average”.

78. National Center for Education Statistics, 120 Years of American Education: A Statistical Portrait, 65.

79. Несколько наиболее авторитетных исследований, показывающих, что глобальные тенденции имеют выгодное для нас направление: Max Roser, “Most of Us Are Wrong About How the World Has Changed (Especially Those Who Are Pessimistic About the Future)”, Our World in Data, July 27, 2018, https://ourworldindata.org/wrong-about-the-world; “Why Are We Working on Our World in Data?”, Our World in Data, July 20, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/motivation; Steven Pinker, “Is the World Getting Better or Worse? A Look at the Numbers”, TED video, April 2018, https://www.ted.com/talks/steven_pinker_is_the_world_getting _better_or_worse_a_look_at_the_numbers.

80. Подробнее о взглядах Эрика Бриньолфсона: Erik Brynjolfsson, “The Key to Growth? Race with the Machines”, TED, February 2013, https://www.ted.com/talks/erik_brynjolfsson_the_key_to_growth_race_with_the_machines; Erik Brynjolfsson et al., Mind vs Machine: Implications for Productivity, Wages and Employment from AI”, The Artificial Intelligence Channel, YouTube video, November 20, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roemLDPy_Ww; Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.W. Norton, 2014).

81. Подробное, опирающееся на факты и данные объяснение тенденции к деквалификации, начавшейся в 1950-е: David Kunst, “Deskilling Among Manufacturing Production Workers”, VoxEU, August 9, 2019, https://voxeu.org/article/deskilling-among-manufacturing-production-workers.

82. Подробнее о растущих требованиях к квалификации работников и процессе производства обуви в компании FitMyFoot: Pablo Illanes et al., “Retraining and Reskilling Workers in the Age of Automation”, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2018, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/retrain ing-and-reskilling-workers-in-the-age-of-automation; “The Science and Technology of FitMyFoot”, FitMyFoot, accessed April 20, 2023, https://fitmyfoot.com/pages/science.

83. Jack Kelly, “Wells Fargo Predicts That Robots Will Steal 200,000 Banking Jobs Within the Next 10 Years”, Forbes, October 8, 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2019/10 /08/wells-fargo-predicts-that-robots-will-steal-200000-banking-jobs-within-the-next-10-years/#237ecaba68d7; James Bessen, “How Computer Automation Affects Occupations: Technology, Jobs, and Skills”, Boston University School of Law (Law & Economics working paper no. 15–49, November 13, 2015), 5, https://www.bu.edu/law/files /2015/11/NewTech-2.pdf.

84. G. M. Filisko, “Paralegals and Legal Assistants Are Taking on Expanded Duties”, ABA Journal, November 1, 2014, http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/techno_change_o_paralegal_legal_assistant_duties_expand; Jean O’Grady, “Analytics, AI and Insights: 5 Innovations That Redefined Legal Research Since 2010”, Above the Law, January 2, 2020, https://abovethelaw.com/2020/01/analytics-ai-and-insights-5-innovations-that-redefined-legal-research-since-2010.

85. Kevin Roose, “A.I.-Generated Art Is Already Transforming Creative Work”, New York Times, October 21, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/technology/ai-generated-art-jobs-dall-e-2.html.

86. Краткое и доступное объяснение различий между капиталом и трудом: BBC, “Methods of Production: Labour and Capital”, BBC Bitesize, accessed January 30, 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zth78mn/revision/5; Sal Khan, “What Is Capital?”, Khan Academy, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-fi nance-domain/macroeconomics/macroeconomics-income-inequality/piketty-capital/v/what-is-capital; Catherine Rampell, “Companies Spend on Equipment, Not Workers”, New York Times, June 9, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/10/business/10capital.html; Tim Harford, “What Really Powers Innovation: High Wages”, Financial Times, January 11, 2013, https://www.ft.com/content/b7ad1c68-59fb-11e2-b728-00144feab49a.

87. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)”, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated March 2, 2023, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB.

88. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)”.

89. Soon-Yong Choi and Andrew B. Whinston, “The IT Revolution in the USA: The Current Situation and the Problems”, in The Internet Revolution: A Global Perspective, ed. Emanuele Giovannetti, Mitsuhiro Kagami, and Masatsugu Tsuji (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 219, https://books.google.com/books?id=1f6wD7gezP4C.

90. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)”.

91. “Descriptions of General Purpose Digital Computers”, Computers and Automation 4, no. 6 (June 1965): 76, https://web.archive.org/web/20190723025854/http://www.bitsavers.org/pdf/computersAndAutomation/196506.pdf.

93. Подробнее о ВВП и предельных издержках: Tim Callen, “Gross Domestic Product: An Economy’s All”, International Monetary Fund, December 18, 2018, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/gdp.htm; Alicia Tuovila, “Marginal Cost of Production”, Investopedia, September 20, 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marginalcostofpro duction.asp; Sal Khan, “Marginal Revenue and Marginal Cost”, Khan Academy, accessed April 20, 2023, https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/ap-microeco nomics/production-cost-and-the-perfect-competition-model-temporary/short-run-production-costs/v/marginal-revenue-and-marginal-cost; Jeremy Rifkin, The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism (New York: St. Martin’s, 2014).

94. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

95. “Introducing the AMD Radeon RX 7900 XT”, AMD, accessed January 30, 2023, https:// www.amd.com/en/products/graphics/amd-radeon-rx-7900xt; Michael Justin Allen Sexton, “AMD Radeon RX 7900 XT Review”, PC Magazine, December 17, 2022, https://www.pcmag.com/reviews/amd-radeon-rx-7900-xt.

96. Все источники данных для оценки соотношения цена/производительность компьютеров, упомянутых в этой книге, приведены в приложении.

97. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “A Review of Hedonic Price Adjustment Techniques for Products Experiencing Rapid and Complex Quality Change”, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 15, 2022, https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/hedonic-price-adjustment-techniques.htm; Dave Wasshausen and Brent R. Moulton, “The Role of Hedonic Methods in Measuring Real GDP in the United States”, Bureau of Economic Analysis, October 2006, https://www.bea.gov/system/files/papers/P2006-6_0.pdf.

98. Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis, and Felix Eggers, “Using Massive Online Choice Experiments to Measure Changes in Well-Being”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 15 (April 9, 2019): 7250–55, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1815663116.

101. Jasmine Enberg, “Social Media Update Q1 2021”, eMarketer, March 30, 2021, https://www.emarketer.com/content/social-media-update-q1-2021.

102. “Social Media Fact Sheet”, Pew Research Center, April 7, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media; Stella U. Ogunwoleet al., “Population Under Age 18 Declined Last Decade”, US Census Bureau, August